Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-16

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-06) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-06 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-06. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-06. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-06. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-06. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-06)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-06) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 91 (50 – 134) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -150 (9.9 – Inf)
Argentina 116 (64 – 158) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 38 (8.5 – Inf)
Australia 59 (22 – 94) Decreasing 0.6 (0.5 – 0.8) -10 (26 – Inf)
Austria 175 (116 – 223) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 63 (29 – 102) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.2) -23 (11 – Inf)
Bahrain 153 (99 – 201) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2.1) 6.5 (4.1 – 16)
Bangladesh 161 (112 – 213) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 2) 6.9 (4.4 – 16)
Belarus 343 (276 – 411) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 17 (9 – 230)
Belgium 1080 (947 – 1205) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -27 (Inf – Inf)
Brazil 1466 (1326 – 1612) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -140 (50 – Inf)
Cameroon 27 (1 – 46) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -10 (8.1 – Inf)
Canada 1255 (1129 – 1393) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -93 (69 – Inf)
Chile 361 (288 – 431) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -120 (26 – Inf)
China 105 (54 – 157) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (6.1 – Inf)
Colombia 129 (83 – 182) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -20 (28 – Inf)
Czechia 113 (61 – 167) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -8.4 (Inf – Inf)
Denmark 179 (118 – 230) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Dominican Republic 187 (118 – 254) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 43 (9.5 – Inf)
Ecuador 246 (155 – 343) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -12 (31 – Inf)
Egypt 144 (93 – 194) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -120 (13 – Inf)
Estonia 41 (12 – 71) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -61 (6 – Inf)
Finland 109 (63 – 156) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -16 (34 – Inf)
France 3401 (3183 – 3611) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -80 (310 – Inf)
Germany 2526 (2319 – 2705) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 74 (31 – 110) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2.1) 8.1 (3.8 – Inf)
Greece 56 (17 – 93) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -45 (7.1 – Inf)
Hungary 79 (33 – 117) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -34 (11 – Inf)
India 1021 (896 – 1121) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 15 (10 – 28)
Indonesia 328 (258 – 398) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 21 (10 – Inf)
Iran 1670 (1525 – 1822) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -22 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 47 (14 – 85) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -11 (13 – Inf)
Ireland 848 (738 – 950) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (10 – 37)
Israel 424 (342 – 500) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) 140 (19 – Inf)
Italy 3604 (3364 – 3828) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -89 (220 – Inf)
Japan 611 (503 – 697) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (8.5 – 34)
Kazakhstan 127 (68 – 183) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 9.6 (4.8 – 650)
Kuwait 100 (45 – 147) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 170 (8.4 – Inf)
Lithuania 61 (2 – 119) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9) 25 (3.9 – Inf)
Luxembourg 45 (8 – 84) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1) -7.4 (15 – Inf)
Malaysia 162 (111 – 217) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 91 (12 – Inf)
Mexico 390 (319 – 468) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 35 (13 – Inf)
Moldova 134 (87 – 174) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 42 (9.7 – Inf)
Morocco 118 (70 – 163) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 32 (8 – Inf)
Netherlands 1058 (911 – 1164) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 370 (32 – Inf)
Norway 93 (52 – 141) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -15 (26 – Inf)
Oman 121 (66 – 167) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.1) 6.4 (3.8 – 21)
Pakistan 303 (233 – 372) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -37 (33 – Inf)
Panama 151 (97 – 212) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -24 (23 – Inf)
Peru 1146 (1013 – 1272) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 13 (9.1 – 20)
Philippines 269 (211 – 332) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 17 (8.4 – Inf)
Poland 311 (237 – 376) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -31 (52 – Inf)
Portugal 542 (454 – 629) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 74 (18 – 130) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 24 (4.9 – Inf)
Qatar 231 (164 – 285) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 74 (13 – Inf)
Romania 335 (254 – 400) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -1400 (20 – Inf)
Russia 2359 (2178 – 2549) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 10 (8.3 – 13)
Saudi Arabia 434 (352 – 508) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (7.8 – 27)
Serbia 239 (171 – 287) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -320 (18 – Inf)
Singapore 320 (252 – 381) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 8.6 (5.8 – 16)
Slovakia 40 (11 – 67) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -32 (7 – Inf)
South Africa 119 (67 – 160) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 13 (5.7 – Inf)
South Korea 46 (14 – 81) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -94 (5.7 – Inf)
Spain 3778 (3515 – 3987) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.8) -16 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 452 (365 – 524) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -38 (63 – Inf)
Switzerland 375 (304 – 447) Decreasing 0.7 (0.7 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 46 (10 – 72) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.1) -11 (13 – Inf)
Turkey 4439 (4168 – 4689) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 44 (26 – 150)
Ukraine 298 (223 – 361) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 14 (7.6 – 67)
United Arab Emirates 399 (325 – 473) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 28 (12 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5554 (5268 – 5853) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 42 (27 – 100)
United States of America 27240 (26587 – 27853) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -45 (Inf – Inf)
Uzbekistan 137 (80 – 179) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 9.8 (5.2 – 140)